The BRICS fallacy 😢
Built up as the next big thing , the rise and the fall of the BRICS
goes to illustrate , if anything at all , that the US is still indispensible to the world economy...
( By Ana Palacio , former senior v.president of the
World Bank ) .
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The recent downgrade of Brazil's credit rating to junk status eas followed by a raft of articles heralding the crumbling of the
BRICS ( Brazil , Russia , India , China and South Africa ) .
How predictable : schadenfreude almost always follows bad news about the BRICS , whose members were once hailed as the world's up - and - coming economic powerhouses and next major political force .
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There's something deeper going on here .
The world's seeming obsession with the BRICS' perceived rise and fall reflects a desire to identify the country or group of countries that would take over from the US as a global leader .
But , in searching for the " next big thing " , the world ignores the fact that the US remains the only power capable of providing global leadership and ensuring some semblance of international order .
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The story of the BRICS is a familiar one .
It begun as a technical grouping in 2001 , when the British economist Jim O'Neill lumped them together ( without S.Africa ) and gave them their catchy name for the sole reason that they were all large , rapidly growing emerging economies .
But , recognising that economic power could translate into political influence , the BRICS held their first informal meeting in 2006 , and their first leaders' summit in 2009 .
The bloc was going places - or so it seemed .
But seven years , seven summits , and one new member
( S.Africa joined in 2010 ) later , the significance of the BRICS remains hotly debated .
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CRACKS IN THE FOUNDATIONS
The disparities among the BRICS are well known .
China's economic output is nearly twice that of the BRICS combined and roughly 30 times that of S.Africa .
Their governance models are vastly different , from India's robust democracy to Russia's illiberal model to China's
one - party system .Nonetheless , the BRICS have acted in concert on certain occasion .
More concretely , the long anticipated New Development Bank
run jointly and equally by the five BRICS countries , opened its doors in Shanghai in July 2015 .
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Clearly the BRICS ...are a thing . They are just not THE thing....
Economically the BRICS are facing serious challenges .
In addition to a well documented growth slow - down , China has lately experienced considerable stock - market turmoil and currency devaluation . The Brazilian and Russian economies are contracting . S.Africa's growth has slowed ..and India , though maintaining relatively strong growth , must undertake important reforms .
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The BRICS have also failed to fulfil their promise of international leadership .
At the beginning of the decade , Brazil showed a certain aspiration , along with Turkey , to press ahead with an alternative nuclear deal with Iran .
But that proposal fell apart , and , amid pressure from corruption scandals and falling commodities prices , Brazil left the global stage .
S.Africa and India also continue to punch below their apparent weight internationally .
As for Russia , the only traditional world leader of the bunch , the Kremlin's Ukraine policy has done severe damage to the country's international profile - damage that could eventually grow after their Syria coup...
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BRIC..KS DONT FLOAT.....
Only China has displayed an inclination to lead .
Recent visit by president Xi Jinping produced major announcements on climate action , cyber security and international development .
But China's growing assertiveness , particularly in the South
China Sea , has fuelled the perception that it is more of a threat than a leader . All in all , the BRICS no longer seem to be rising .
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At the same time , the core of the West no longer seems to be declining . Although Europe remains mired in crisis and existential self-doubt , and Japan is still finding its feet after two decades of economic stagnation , the US is as relevant as ever .
A quarter-century after the Cold War's end , the world should have arrived at a more equitable and balanced way of getting things done .
But it has not , and no other single power is in a position to take America's place....
